Between Diplomacy and Escalation: What’s Next for Iran and Israel

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has ravaged entire communities. 

“I woke up to a deafening explosion… we were all terrified.” — Marziyeh, a resident from the city of Natanz recounts after overnight strikes. 

What is the timeline of events?

Over the course of 12 days in June of 2025, Israel launched missile strikes onto military labs in Iran. This disrupted Iran’s large scale nuclear weapon program which caused many civilian casualties. Furthermore, Iran’s Evin Prison was attacked, which left 80 detainees dead. In response, Iran sent missiles to Israel and US military bases. To de-escalate the situation, the US intervened by launching operation Midnight Hammer, which destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme. The US called a ceasefire, which was followed by Israel and Iran. Experts from RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) notes that  “each party carried strategic concerns that necessarily drove the cessation of open warfare.”

What is the US’ role in all these events?

Following the Iranian revolution, the US lost ties to Iran and in 1995, US embargoed trade with Iran. Meanwhile, the US maintained aid to Israel at $3 billion annually and created a free trade agreement in 1985.

Compared to Iran, Israel is backed by the US which has a myriad more allies and influence. A US militant said, “We believe that this is the largest single Patriot engagement in U.S. military history.” A small crew of just 44 U.S. soldiers operated two Patriot batteries, under immense pressure, to intercept and defeat the incoming missiles.”. 

Who is right and who is wrong? 

When it comes to the war, opinions typically aren’t shaped by neutral assessment of facts, but instead by which country they naturally align with. Both Iran and Israel caused extensive civilian casualties, were faced with long-ranged missiles and have a military strong-government. 

James J.F. Forest, professor of security studies, adds: “It’s certainly a new era of influence warfare... There’s never really been a previous corollary in history where you had the ability to go to scale with this kind of propaganda.” 

Will there be an end to the conflict? 

Chatham House’s Thomas Juneau argues ‘Iran now finds itself strategically isolated, with no good options—but “new rules of the game will… heavily favour[ing] Israel. If Iran can give up its enrichment programme and guarantee its nuclear project can only be used for civilian purposes, a deal might be possible.’

The National (Sciences Po’s Karim El Mufti and Crisis Group’s Naysan Rafati states “In every war, there is always a chance for diplomacy... The problem is, when conflicts drag on, grievances multiply and calls for accountability become much harder to navigate. There may not be much time left.”

Forbes Analysis (via Reuters/Forbes)believes "The conflict could end in various ways—physical destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, diplomatic resolution, regime collapse, or continued resistance leading to an inconclusive outcome."